{
  "publication": {
    "model_version": "0.4.0-dev",
    "data_version": "2026-08-05-fixture-v1",
    "git_commit": "da1bca52721a5891b205b177a3bb2e9065b466ba",
    "scenario_identifier": "reference-comparison",
    "solver": "HiGHS (source scenario runs)",
    "solver_settings": {
      "threads": 1,
      "random_seed": 0
    },
    "execution_date": "2026-08-06T05:03:08Z",
    "geographic_coverage": [
      "Carroll County, Maryland",
      "Frederick County, Maryland"
    ],
    "assumptions_field": "source scenario assumptions",
    "validation_status": "generated; run `make validate` before publication",
    "output_checksum": "sha256:50c1e1275d4760cc93e557fe5be40eb6eb30d13ef9f8d6791f5b9b2e4021476a"
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "scenario_id": "replacement_carroll",
      "name": "Carroll replacement operating model",
      "population_covered": 175305,
      "annual_operating_cost_usd": 163566824.68,
      "capital_requirement_usd": 1910236.6,
      "producer_payments_usd": 8870000.0,
      "cost_per_resident_year_usd": 933.04,
      "local_supply_share_pct": 12.06,
      "interstate_supply_share_pct": 57.91,
      "import_supply_share_pct": 18.84,
      "food_loss_kg": 591159.51,
      "geographic_access_coverage_pct": 100.0,
      "affordable_basket_coverage_pct": 100.0
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "replacement_frederick",
      "name": "Frederick replacement operating model",
      "population_covered": 295432,
      "annual_operating_cost_usd": 270843770.76,
      "capital_requirement_usd": 3512804.6,
      "producer_payments_usd": 13319000.0,
      "cost_per_resident_year_usd": 916.77,
      "local_supply_share_pct": 10.85,
      "interstate_supply_share_pct": 59.38,
      "import_supply_share_pct": 18.85,
      "food_loss_kg": 990823.56,
      "geographic_access_coverage_pct": 100.0,
      "affordable_basket_coverage_pct": 100.0
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "replacement_federated",
      "name": "Carroll\u2013Frederick federated operating model",
      "population_covered": 470737,
      "annual_operating_cost_usd": 435113662.29,
      "capital_requirement_usd": 5423041.2,
      "producer_payments_usd": 22189000.0,
      "cost_per_resident_year_usd": 924.32,
      "local_supply_share_pct": 11.29,
      "interstate_supply_share_pct": 62.81,
      "import_supply_share_pct": 18.84,
      "food_loss_kg": 1673407.7,
      "geographic_access_coverage_pct": 100.0,
      "affordable_basket_coverage_pct": 100.0
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "current_baseline",
      "name": "Current-policy approximation",
      "population_covered": 175305,
      "annual_operating_cost_usd": 156350775.26,
      "capital_requirement_usd": 1910236.6,
      "producer_payments_usd": 8870000.0,
      "cost_per_resident_year_usd": 891.88,
      "local_supply_share_pct": 12.23,
      "interstate_supply_share_pct": 57.63,
      "import_supply_share_pct": 18.8,
      "food_loss_kg": 588476.59,
      "geographic_access_coverage_pct": 91.0,
      "affordable_basket_coverage_pct": 92.9
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "drought_external",
      "name": "Major external supplier drought",
      "population_covered": 175305,
      "annual_operating_cost_usd": 163566824.68,
      "capital_requirement_usd": 1910236.6,
      "producer_payments_usd": 8870000.0,
      "cost_per_resident_year_usd": 933.04,
      "local_supply_share_pct": 12.06,
      "interstate_supply_share_pct": 57.91,
      "import_supply_share_pct": 18.84,
      "food_loss_kg": 591159.51,
      "geographic_access_coverage_pct": 100.0,
      "affordable_basket_coverage_pct": 100.0
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "port_disruption",
      "name": "Port of Baltimore disruption",
      "population_covered": 175305,
      "annual_operating_cost_usd": 163566824.68,
      "capital_requirement_usd": 1910236.6,
      "producer_payments_usd": 8870000.0,
      "cost_per_resident_year_usd": 933.04,
      "local_supply_share_pct": 12.06,
      "interstate_supply_share_pct": 57.91,
      "import_supply_share_pct": 18.84,
      "food_loss_kg": 591159.51,
      "geographic_access_coverage_pct": 100.0,
      "affordable_basket_coverage_pct": 100.0
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "poultry_disruption",
      "name": "Poultry processing disruption",
      "population_covered": 175305,
      "annual_operating_cost_usd": 163801005.81,
      "capital_requirement_usd": 1910236.6,
      "producer_payments_usd": 8870000.0,
      "cost_per_resident_year_usd": 934.38,
      "local_supply_share_pct": 12.05,
      "interstate_supply_share_pct": 61.58,
      "import_supply_share_pct": 18.84,
      "food_loss_kg": 626249.72,
      "geographic_access_coverage_pct": 100.0,
      "affordable_basket_coverage_pct": 100.0
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "fuel_disruption",
      "name": "Carroll replacement \u2014 fuel cost disruption",
      "population_covered": 175305,
      "annual_operating_cost_usd": 174594275.46,
      "capital_requirement_usd": 1910236.6,
      "producer_payments_usd": 8870000.0,
      "cost_per_resident_year_usd": 995.95,
      "local_supply_share_pct": 12.06,
      "interstate_supply_share_pct": 55.41,
      "import_supply_share_pct": 18.85,
      "food_loss_kg": 567231.41,
      "geographic_access_coverage_pct": 100.0,
      "affordable_basket_coverage_pct": 100.0
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "population_growth",
      "name": "Carroll replacement \u2014 15% population growth",
      "population_covered": 201601,
      "annual_operating_cost_usd": 188281679.17,
      "capital_requirement_usd": 2457177.29,
      "producer_payments_usd": 8870000.0,
      "cost_per_resident_year_usd": 933.93,
      "local_supply_share_pct": 10.48,
      "interstate_supply_share_pct": 59.49,
      "import_supply_share_pct": 18.84,
      "food_loss_kg": 695271.09,
      "geographic_access_coverage_pct": 100.0,
      "affordable_basket_coverage_pct": 100.0
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "reduced_distribution_loss",
      "name": "Carroll replacement \u2014 50% lower distribution loss",
      "population_covered": 175305,
      "annual_operating_cost_usd": 163139881.1,
      "capital_requirement_usd": 1910236.6,
      "producer_payments_usd": 8870000.0,
      "cost_per_resident_year_usd": 930.61,
      "local_supply_share_pct": 12.09,
      "interstate_supply_share_pct": 57.83,
      "import_supply_share_pct": 18.88,
      "food_loss_kg": 291687.82,
      "geographic_access_coverage_pct": 100.0,
      "affordable_basket_coverage_pct": 100.0
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "plant_forward_diet",
      "name": "Carroll replacement \u2014 leafy-greens dietary shift",
      "population_covered": 175305,
      "annual_operating_cost_usd": 163144374.92,
      "capital_requirement_usd": 1897249.47,
      "producer_payments_usd": 8870000.0,
      "cost_per_resident_year_usd": 930.63,
      "local_supply_share_pct": 12.12,
      "interstate_supply_share_pct": 57.38,
      "import_supply_share_pct": 18.73,
      "food_loss_kg": 546911.19,
      "geographic_access_coverage_pct": 100.0,
      "affordable_basket_coverage_pct": 100.0
    }
  ]
}